Is Tehran Stock Exchange Index truly representing the overall market behavior?

This is a common question asked multiple times by market practitioners and observers of Iran’s capital market. This is essentially due to the asymmetry readily witnessed by those who buy and sell stocks of companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Indeed, there are occasions when mixed signals are communicated by the All-Share Index if you happen to make professional investment decisions based on interpretations of the benchmark index.

For instance, you might see in one typical session of the exchange market that the gauge is in the red zone by about 300 or 400 points down but there are many sectors across different market boards that are experiencing gains rather than losses in price in spite of the general negative environment usually seen under such circumstances.

In one recent study performed by Armin Sadeghi Adl, Tehran Stock Exchange Company’s expert at Research Management Division, he underlined the fact that there is a meaningful diversion between two major indexes used to quantify the general behavior of the equity market namely, value weighted index—being constantly blamed for its shortcomings to illustrate the true performance of the market—and equal-weighted index, which was introduced just two years ago to the market activists and researchers.

As Mr. Adl explains about his research in his article, published by the well-reputed economic Daily, Donya-e-Eqtesad, he assures us that value-weighted Index or locally known as Overall Index does not genuinely illustrate the reality of the market since this measure is initially composed of weight of firms based on their market cap size, which is very misleading. This is because of the calculation measures employed to specify the influential companies on the Index.In In fact, the number of listed companies allowed to be included in this computation does not exceed 17 from 321 ones present in TSE. Additionally, their market cap goes beyond 50% which is in stark contrast to the 10%, belonging to  just 231 companies.

Thus, this is to say that TSE Index is impacted by small fraction of giant names. Consequently this is not a guiding element to those who adjust their investment decisions and strategies solely by such an indicator, according to Mr. Adl.

In the same vein, the equal-weighted index was introduced in 2014/15. From the time this measure first used till the first two months of current Persian Calendar, it showed a solid 33.5% growth.

Meanwhile the Overall Index registered 8.1% dip. In other words, unlike the down cycle perceived in the market throughout the period, there existed lucrative opportunities for those individuals to forego the false signals emitted by the Index and achieve acceptable and at times unexpected returns.

Statistically speaking, in the first quarter of the current Iranian year, while the Index went down by about 9.5% and the average return resulted by 17 big cap companies dropped by 10.2% (with a market cap of above 50%), there were 131 firms in the exchange market with positive returns.

It is noteworthy to say that small cap entities recorded 21% of stock trades in the same period which is a telling testimony to the claim that the market participants were ignorant of many other names in the market.

It is also good to know that many of the giants in the capital market of Iran are notoriously labeled as “index builder” as they they are the driving forces behind market downs or ups.

To shed more light on the matter, let’s take the largest  and smallest names present in TSE as an example for the sale of clarity.

Persian Gulf Petrochemical Company which enjoys 8.4% share of total market cap and Tehran Derakhshan Company with a meager 0.003% stake of the whole market are the largest and smallest  companies in Tehran Exchange Market. As it is self-revealing, we can understand the big difference a factor such as  market cap can exert on Overall Index swings.

This is why someone who is interested in investing in the exchange market of Iran should not allow themselves to get misled by following Index movements in either directions. Rather, interested individuals should enter the market with open eyes and ample knowledge of the dynamics and fundamentals of the market.

Moreover, when studying the first quarter performance of the TSE, what actually surfaces is that most investors were unluckily focused on surprisingly just 16 names out of 321 ones available for investment in the market, according the research finds by Mr. Adl. It was so much so that half of the value of trades were single-handedly won by the big names across the market.

Moreover, turnover ratio for most traded shares has a lot to tell us. According to Mr. Adl, half of these firms experienced more than 100% turnover ratio. In other words, their shares had changed hands at least once in the market during the period.

As a live example, we can name Saipa Investment Company, with minus 9.8% return in the period. This company had the highest  share turnover ratio among the list of 16  companies most favored by the market participants. Nevertheless, the average for this ratio was 99% among  big cap firms in the equity market.

Nonetheless, the aforementioned companies’ loss ranged from minus 3.3% to minus 43.9%. The average was minus 23.5% in the period, however.

All in all, it appears that although the Tehran Stock Exchange did not pass upbeat trading sessions on the whole in the last quarter, it is evident that there are big opportunities out there. Therefore, it is the investors themselves and not just the investment environment to point the finger of blame at for the low or negative returns realized.

P.S.: All tables are taken from Donye-e-Eqtesad, published 2 August,2016


This is a guest post written by Navid Kahlor, Freelance Contributor at Al-Monitor. The original can be found here.

Iran’s Stock Market Opens to Investors as Sanctions are Lifted

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Over the weekend, one of the largest closed emerging markets became more accessible to foreign investors as financial sanctions were officially lifted. The ‘implementation day’ came somewhat sooner than expected following last year’s breakthrough deal between Iran, the United States and other world powers which centred around Iran’s nuclear programme.
Emerging and frontier market fund managers are now looking more closely at Iran to evaluate its investment potential, as shown by the rapidly growing number of Iran-focused funds as well as the increase in investor travel to Tehran during the last six months. The Tehran Stock Exchange already has a large, diversified and liquid stock market with more than 400 listed companies, and a market capitalisation of about $90bn, with favourable trading valuations (PE of 5.6 vs EM average of roughly 12.2). Aside from oil (which accounts for roughly 18% of Iran’s economy compared to 50% in Saudi Arabia), services, agriculture, manufacturing and mining are key drivers of domestic growth. Analysts also point to the country’s large IPO pipeline (potentially close to $100bn, largely due to the government’s privatisation programmes) which has been kept on hold and largely out of the reach of global markets due to the sanctions.

Despite the developments, inflows are likely to be slower than some expect as foreign investors (particularly internal compliance teams within these institutions) gradually build up knowledge and confidence in a market where investor relations and corporate governance standards are somewhat behind to say the least. And then there is also what some have called “snapback risk”, i.e. the possibility that sanctions are re-imposed, potentially trapping investors.

Iran’s potential impact on emerging and frontier market indices is as promising as it is uncertain. But no doubt many investors will be looking to learn as much as possible about this new market and its companies.